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Is it possible the metric has a Max Percent Change that is lower than 114? perhaps 100? https://www.loom.com/share/8668ce095380421a9e66a1835b67dc85

Hi Luke. Yet, it was lower than that. However, the tag disappeared but I’m still seing this “Chance to beat control” that is suspiciously stuck at 50%,

This is probably the result of our particular bayesian approach causing problems when a group mean could potentially being negative (large variance and enough of the posterior is negative) and the 50% is a default return value when we can't compute uncertainty accurately. I can confirm this if you share the users, sums and sums of squares from the raw query. We're aware just returning 50% is a bad user experience and improving it is our intention.